The Al Qaeda offer of truce to Europe brings to mind three things that I have been reflecting upon lately.
One, it proves that the Spanish retreat has had a huge effect on the terrorists' appraisal of Europe and its place in the war. Many are now convinced that Europe can be scared off, enabling them to focus on America and then come back to mop up Europe later.
Second, I wonder whether the terrorists realize that France is their de-facto ally in the short term, in so far as France is undermining our efforts in Iraq and France is trying to push Europe away from America.
Third, are the terrorists truly able to coordinate a strategy, and are they able to deal with issues such as those raised by points one and two? There are obviously a lot of disparate groups within the Islamic terrorist movement that are hard to control, but at the same time, they can see the value of a common approach and share many of the same motivations.
I am fairly confident that if the three month deadline passes without European compliance, there will be more significant terrorist attacks in Europe. I wonder where they will be and what the European reaction will be (the latter will be largely dependent on the former).
