![]() |
Incite -- (v) 1: give an incentive; 2: provoke or stir up; "incite a riot"; 3: urge on; cause to act |
Saturday, June 12, 2004
Written by: AnonymousLast weekend, they ran the 136th Belmont Stakes. Records were set, including the largest assembly to witness a sporting event in NY State history: 120,139 persons. The other was the extension of the Triple Crown-less drought, now the longest in history at 27 years. (Last won in 1978 by Affirmed, ten horses have since threatened, and all ten have found the extra quarter-mile at Belmont to be insurmountable.) What amazed me about the race was not the loss by Smarty or the win by Birdstone (I'm not particularly fond of horseracing), or the fact that both Birdstone's jockey and owner apologized for their win. No, what got me was that Smarty Jones went off a 1-5 horse. 1:5 as in 4 under even money. The first rule of capital allocation is to make damn sure you are getting properly paid for the risk you are assuming. If you placed a bet on Smarty Jones to win the Belmont Stakes, you would be paid 20%, or 40 cents for every 2 dollars risked. I'm still in utter shock about this. This horse was a 5-1 to LOSE! Furthermore, as I am to understand horseracing, the way odds are generated is through the net result of the aggregate field bet - the more money wagered on a horse, the lower the odds become, and the higher for the balance of the field. So, presumably, Smarty at some point was a 1-4 horse, and enough bettors found this to be attractive, so as to worsen the payout to 1-5. Have you ever seen a horserace? Have you seen the chaos associated with the start? Have you seen how horses really have no foching idea that they are about to be involved in a race as they are loaded into their start boxes? Have you ever noticed how jockeys have about as much control of their horses as NASA had over the precise landing area for a Mercury capsule? To put things into perspective, travel to your nearest casino and walk over to a roulette wheel. There, they will allow you to bet whether the next spin will score a black or red, and pay you even money, as in 1:1, if you happen to guess right. (The vig for the house is in the fact that there are 38 spaces on the wheel, two of which are neither red nor black, so you are actually being paid 1:1 on a bet where you have around a 53% chance of losing). Smarty, fully subject to the entropy inherent in horseracing, is gonna pay you 1:5. I'm thinking that there is some money to be made in the shockingly inefficient world of horseracing.
|
Contact The Author:
John Beck Feedback Welcomed
Greatest Hits
The Complete United Nations Posts Immoderate Moderates Marketing Myopia In defense of the Republic UKIP in America Playing Connect the Dots A Point So Often Missed: The Presence of an Administered Rate Reagan Remembrance Dr. Wolfowitz, or How I Supported the Right War Waged in the Wrong Way for the Wrong Reasons Divine Right of Kings and UN Mandates A Fantastic Idea, If I Do Say So Myself Why We Were Right to Liberate Iraq The Crisis of Conservatism
Blogs Worth Bookmarking
Steal The Blinds Poor Dudley's Almanac Mansizedtarget Protein Wisdom Anti-Idiotarian Rottweiler New Sisyphus Iowahawk Jim Treacher Ace of Spades Captain's Quarters Rambling's Journal Neolibertarian Blog LLP Group Blog The Llama Butchers The Castle Argghhh The Politburo Diktat The Dissident Frogman In Search of Utopia Aaron's cc: TacJammer Wizbang Q&O IMAO INDC You Know You Wanna Classical Values Clowning Glory Vice Squad Samizdata Hit & Run Link Mecca The Corner Power Line Instapundit Michelle Malkin Mises Institute marchand chronicles Enlighten - New Jersey
More Top Reads
Ego SlagleRock's Slaughterhouse a_sdf This Blog is Full of Crap Redstate Who Tends the Fires The Bleat Outside the Beltway gapingvoid Small Dead Animals Kim du Toit Tman in Tennessee mypetjawa mASS BACKWARDS Hog On Ice Pardon My English Mr. Minority Speed Of Thought Bloodletting La Shawn Barber Vodkapundit Right Wing News USS Clueless LeatherPenguin Belmont Club Shades of Gray Seldom Sober Roger L. Simon Tacoma Blaze A Small Victory Murdoc Online Iraq Elections Diatribe Winds of Change Wuzzadem Enlighten - New Jersey Random Fate Riding Sun My VRWC The Daily File Matt "The Man" Margolis Bastard Sword Roller Coaster of Hate
News Links
Blogger News Network National Review Online Tech Central Station The Drudge Report Reason Online Mises Institute The Weekly Standard Front Page Magazine Town Hall VDARE
Affiliations, Accolades, & Acknowledgements
NEOLIBERTARIAN NETWORK ![]() LIFE, LIBERTY, PROPERTY ![]() ALLIANCE OF FREE BLOGS ![]() "More tallent than a million monkeys with typewriters." --Glenn Reynolds BEST CONSERVATIVE BLOG NOMINEE ![]() EMPIRE OF THE BLOGS ![]() BLOGS FOR BUSH ![]()
Life, Liberty, Property Community
Reciprocal Blogrolling
Yippee-Ki-Yay! Accidental Verbosity Conservative Eyes The Moderate Voice Perpetual Three-Dot Column Chapomatic Sudan Watch Mystery Achievement Le Sabot Post-Moderne Comment Me No Comments New Spew
Links That Amuse the Writers
Huffington's Toast The IFOC News Dave Barry's Blog Drum Machine Something Awful Fight! Cox & Forkum Fark Exploding Dog
Archives
March 2004 April 2004 May 2004 June 2004 July 2004 August 2004 September 2004 October 2004 November 2004 December 2004 January 2005 February 2005 March 2005 April 2005 May 2005 June 2005 July 2005 August 2005 September 2005 October 2005 November 2005 December 2005 January 2006 February 2006 March 2006 April 2006 May 2006 June 2006 August 2006 March 2007 May 2007 June 2007 August 2007 September 2007 October 2007 January 2008 February 2008 March 2008 April 2008 May 2008 September 2008 November 2008 December 2008 March 2009 April 2009 June 2009 July 2009 August 2009 September 2009 October 2009 November 2009
The Elephant Graveyard
We Are Full of Shit The Sicilian The Diplomad Undercaffeinated Insults Unpunished Fear & Loathing in Iraq Right Wingin-It DGCI Serenity's Journal Son of Nixon Rachel Lucas
Credits
![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() ![]() Popdex ![]() ![]() Email Questions and Comments ![]() This work is licensed under a Creative Commons License. |