Written by: Anonymous

I am afraid that the peace deals brokered in Fallujah and now in Najaf have set a very bad precedent for Iraq, one that could have very negative consequences for our overall efforts in the country. Indeed, I believe that our enemies' tactical defeats have been transformed into moral victories.

Consider the situation in Najaf. Al Sadr knew exactly what he was doing when he agreed to this peace deal. He is now the "liberator" of Najaf, Kufa, and the Shrine. Despite the tremendous damage done to the Mehdi Army, al Sadr can now claim to have driven out the Americans from the holy sites. The tremendous scope of this accomplishment will certainly impress Iraqis, including even the large majority of Iraqis who despise him and would much rather be "occupied" by the U.S. Army than the Mehdi Army.

Hopefully the Mehdi Army and al Sadr have been crushed both mentally and physically by the fighting. But now that we have created this tremendous incentive to attack U.S. and Iraqi security forces, how long will it be before al Sadr or some other miscreant tries to "liberate" another area of Iraq?

In the Shiite south, I think the answer largely depends on how fast Iran can build up a new credible insurgent force. In the Sunni triangle, it may come sooner. I have heard reports that the terrorists and insurgents there are planning to replicate Fallujah in Ramadi. I have also noticed that many of the casualties lately are coming from the Anbar province, where Ramadi is located. Al Sadr's moral victory might be just the incentive they need to force another big showdown.

If that is true, I hope that the Iraqi government can stand their ground the next time. It might be easier for them to do that in the Sunni Triangle because there is no figure with the prestige of al Sistani who could force the Iraqi government into accepting another unfavorable settlement. But if the Iraqi government doesn't stand their ground, and instead forces coalition soldiers to leave an Iraqi city for the third time, then we will truly be in trouble.