INCITE
Incite -- (v) 1: give an incentive; 2: provoke or stir up; "incite a riot"; 3: urge on; cause to act
Friday, January 21, 2005

 
I'm amazed they've lasted this long
Written by: Beck

This is grim.

I enjoy picking on the EU, EUroweenies, EUrocarats... you get the picture. They're an easy target, and I find their politics & policies fairly revolting most of the time. Nonetheless, I genuinely do not like seeing this kind of news:
The CIA has predicted that the European Union will break-up within 15 years unless it radically reforms its ailing welfare systems.

The report by the intelligence agency, which forecasts how the world will look in 2020, warns that Europe could be dragged into economic decline by its aging population. It also predicts the end of NATO and post-1945 military alliances.

In a devastating indictment of EU economic prospects, the report warns: "The current EU welfare state is unsustainable and the lack of any economic revitalisation could lead to the splintering or, at worst, disintegration of the EU, undermining its ambitions to play a heavyweight international role."

[...] The EU is also set for a looming demographic crisis because of a drop in birth rates and increased longevity, with devastating economic consequences.

The report says: "Either European countries adapt their workforces, reform their social welfare, education and tax systems, and accommodate growing immigrant populations [chiefly from Muslim countries] or they face a period of protracted economic stasis."

As a result of the increased immigration needed, the report predicts that Europe’s Muslim population is set to increase from around 13% today to between 22% and 37% of the population by 2025, potentially triggering tensions.

The report predicts that America’s relationships with Europe will be "dramatically altered" over the next 15 years, in a move away from post-Second World War institutions. NATO could disappear and be replaced by increased EU action.
The report goes on to observe that technological and economic trends favor India and China--especially China--over sclerotic Old Europe should current trends continue. I've seen plenty of pundits--Europeans mostly--talk about how the EU is the next superpower. They want it to provide a counter-balance to American power for one thing, and for another, their pride is heavily invested in the notion that Western European institutions are the pinnacle of civilization and development.

They couldn't be more wrong. The future is on the Pacific Rim. Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and Singapore are already as strong or stronger as any European nation economically, and their political and social climates are much more well oriented towards growth and expansion. Australia, Canada, and New Zealand will remain powerful and healthy economies, assuming they avoid the mistakes the Europeans have made (I wish the Canadians the best of luck, they're rapidly heading down the road to self-destruction). South and Central America present numerous nations with a lot of potential. Then of course you have the United States, and looming over it all, China.

The Europeans hardly even figure into it. We might as well leave them to deal with the Middle Eastern crisis they've spent decades aiding and abetting.


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John Beck

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