Written by: Beck

How do I know? Because Jimmy Carter says the opposite. And if there's one thing I know about foreign policy, it's that if Jimmy Carter says a thing is so, it isn't.

In the mean time, Secretary of State Rice is turning up the heat on Iran, and engaging in saber rattling highly reminiscent of the period before the Iraq war. My prediction? She's deliberately playing out the exact same scenario which was a prelude to the Iraq war in an attempt to make Iran believe an invasion is imminent--so that they'll capitulate to our diplomatic demands.

One of the strongest arguments recommending the Iraq war in the first place was that it would give weight to American threats of force which we've been sorely lacking since losing in Vietnam. Libya already folded to pressure in the immediate aftermath of the successful Iraq invasion. The question now is whether Iran will ultimately bow to pressure or call Rice's bluff.

Why "bluff" you ask? Because I think it's pretty certain that we lack the troop strength to occupy Iran right now. While we could engage in tactical strikes, an all out invasion would be pretty damned hard to pull off. We might win the war, but the occupation would be nearly impossible, especially considering that Iran is 50% larger geographically than the total land area of Iraq and Afghanistan combined.